Trump Declares Iran Conflict “Nearly Over” as Oil Markets Rebound

Global crude benchmarks saw a significant reversal on Tuesday as Donald Trump projected a swift conclusion to the US-Israel military campaign against Iran. Brent crude, which had previously surged to a four-year high of $119.50, retreated sharply into the $90 range. The President’s attempt to reassure global investors comes after a week of intense volatility that threatened to derail the international energy supply chain.
The primary catalyst for the market’s anxiety was the total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. With 20% of global oil and gas passing through this narrow waterway, the IRGC’s vow to stop “every litre” of exports created a massive supply vacuum. For seven consecutive days, the strait remained effectively closed, pushing energy costs to levels not seen since the height of the 2022 energy crisis.
In a tactical shift to lower fuel costs, Trump has indicated that the US may waive certain oil-related sanctions to increase global availability. This move was announced shortly after a discussion with Vladimir Putin, suggesting a pragmatic pivot in energy diplomacy. Trump stated that the goal is to keep “sanctions off until the strait is up,” prioritizing lower gas prices for the global public.
The impact of the price spike has been felt acutely across Asia and Europe, leading to various emergency protocols. In Bangladesh, the government moved to close universities to save on electricity, while Thailand and South Korea implemented strict price caps on fuel. These actions underscore the reality that regional instability in the Middle East has immediate and severe consequences for domestic stability worldwide.
As the military phase moves into what Trump calls a “very complete” state, the focus is now on ensuring the safety of commercial shipping. France has suggested that a multi-national naval coalition could soon begin providing escorts for tankers through the Persian Gulf. Success in this mission will be critical to maintaining the recent drop in oil prices and preventing another round of record-breaking volatility.